What’s Happening in the Atlantic Canada Housing Market?

The Atlantic Canada real estate market has continued to hold steady, enjoying robust demand and pricing gains over the last few years amid limited inventories and growing populations. But what differentiates the real estate markets in New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador is perhaps the sales price of the typical home in these places. With mortgage rates expected to ease in the coming months and the economy remaining intact in the second half of 2024, market watchers anticipate that the numbers will prove to be even better in Eastern Canada heading into 2025.

So, what do the data show these days? Let’s look at the latest market trends in Atlantic Canada.

What’s Happening in the Atlantic Canada Housing Market?

Here is a look at the four major Atlantic Canada real estate markets:

New Brunswick

New home sales in New Brunswick real estate fell more than 13 per cent year-over-year in March, totalling 656 units, according to new data by the New Brunswick Real Estate Board (NBREB). In the first three months of 2024, home sales were little changed compared to the same time a year ago. Home sales were nearly 24 per cent below the five-year average.

Home prices surged in March, with the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rocketing at an annualized pace of 9.5 per cent to $295,900. Pricing gains were observed throughout all home types:

• Single-Family Homes: +9.6 per cent to $296,700
• Townhomes: +8.5 per cent to $269,600
• Apartments: +6.2 per cent to $269,800

Despite tepid demand, shrinking inventories have played a significant role in the upward trajectory of New Brunswick home prices. New listings tumbled 1.9 per cent to 1,051 units, while active listings dropped nearly two per cent to 2,388 units. Based on the five-year average, new and active listings were down 12.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively.

The positive development was that months of inventory, which measures the number of months it would take to exhaust current supply levels at the present sales activity rate, edged up to 3.6 in March 2024, up from 3.2 per cent in March 2023.

Here is a breakdown of how different New Brunswick housing markets are doing:

Fredericton

• Sales: 151
• Average Price: $339,613

Greater Moncton

• Sales: 252
• Average Price: $354,976

Northern and Valley Region

• Sales: 106
• Average Price: $201,420

Saint John

• Sales: 147
• Average Price: $326,937

“Although there has been a decline in sales when compared to last year, there’s a growing sense of momentum in many regions of the province,” said Mike Power, the head of the provincial real estate association, in a statement. “Market balance is stable, but with a widely anticipated decrease in interest rates on the horizon, potential buyers may be pushing out their purchases until they have confirmation of lower rates.”

New housing construction volumes popped in the first three months of 2024, surging 268 per cent year-over-year to 604 units, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Newfoundland and Labrador

Demand in the Newfoundland and Labrador housing market slumped in March as home sales tumbled close to 11 per cent year-over-year, totalling 310 units. On a year-to-date basis, home sales declined five per cent, with 855 units exchanging hands. Home sales were also 12.3 per cent below the five-year average.

Like other provinces in the region, home prices headed upward as the benchmark price climbed nearly seven per cent to above $290,000, new data from the Newfoundland and Labrador Association of Realtors show. The average sales price climbed nine per cent to $299,032. Higher prices were witnessed across all housing categories:

• Single-Family Homes: +6.6 per cent to $292,000
• Row Units: +10 per cent to $284,000
• Apartments: +7.5 per cent to $240,600

Once again, a lack of adequate supply supported the gains in prices. New listings were unchanged at 657 units but were more than ten per cent below the five-year average. Active listings dropped five per cent year-over-year to their lowest levels in 15 years. They were also 26 per cent below the five-year average. However, the number of months of inventory ticked up from 6.9 months a year ago to 7.4 months.

In the St. John’s real estate market, single detached home sales were unchanged while the benchmark price surged nearly eight per cent to $335,000.

Housing starts slowed in March but were solid in the overall first quarter, totaling 104 units. This is up 131 per cent compared to the same three-month span a year ago.

Nova Scotia

The Nova Scotia real estate market continues to foster an environment of active sales activity and higher prices.

According to fresh data from the Nova Scotia Association of Realtors (NSAR), home sales advanced a little more than ten per cent to 792 units. Year-to-date, home sales increased 10.5 per cent to 1,983 units. Still, they were 25.2 per cent below the ten-year average.

The benchmark HPI jumped nearly five per cent year-over-year to above $402,000 in March 2024. The average price of homes sold soared 9.7 per cent to $443,771. Additionally, the average year-to-date price swelled 8.8 per cent to $431,817.

Prices were higher for all property types:

• Single-Family Homes: +4.9 per cent to $396,300
• Townhomes: +9.3 per cent to $509,800
• Apartments: +1.3 per cent to $439,000

Housing inventories were mixed in March. New residential listings fell nearly four per cent year-over-year, totalling 1,202 units. Active listings soared nearly 20 per cent to 3,103 units. On a historical basis, new listings were more than 19 per cent below the five-year average, while active listings were about seven per cent above the five-year average.

Here is a breakdown of the entire Nova Scotia real estate market in March compared to the same time a year ago:

Annapolis Valley

• Residential Sales: +16.3 per cent to 100 units
• Residential Average Price: +6.1 per cent to $348,334

Cape Breton

• Residential Sales: -8.9 per cent to 51 units
• Residential Average Price: +0.7 per cent to $234,535

Halifax-Dartmouth

• Residential Sales: +21.4 per cent to 403 units
• Residential Average Price: +4 per cent to $564,562

Highland Region

• Residential Sales: -21.2 per cent to 26 units
• Residential Average Price: -6.7 per cent to $274,765

Northern Nova Scotia

• Residential Sales: -4.8 per cent to 120 units
• Residential Average Price: +15.2 per cent to $299,643

South Shore

• Residential Sales: +1.5 per cent to 68 units
• Residential Average Price: +20.7 per cent to $401,287

Yarmouth

• Residential Sales: +26.3 per cent to 24 units
• Residential Average Price: +13 per cent to $281,875

New housing construction activity in Nova Scotia skyrocketed, totalling 1,969 units year-to-date. This is up 172 per cent year-over-year.

Prince Edward Island

The Prince Edward Island real estate market enjoyed a healthy mix of rising home sales and increasing prices. Fresh statistics from the Prince Edward Island Real Estate Association (PEIRA) showed that home sales jumped 10 per cent year-over-year to 130 units.

The benchmark price jumped three per cent year-over-year to $355,100.

This came as supplies improved, with new listings soaring close to an annualized rate of 30 per cent to 288 units.

New housing construction activity was solid in the first quarter of 2024, as housing starts totalled 150 units in the January-to-March span, up 142 per cent, CMHC data showed.

Affordability Challenges Persist in Atlantic Canada Housing

A decade ago, the Atlantic Canada housing market was not as active as it is today. At the time, it was hard enough to entice people to stay. Fast forward to the present, Canada’s eastern seaboard is enjoying a population boom as cash-rich households flee places like British Columbia and Ontario and head to Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. The writing is on the wall for real estate developers: The Maritimes is the next hot place in Canada, and all the action will take place near the Atlantic Ocean.